Africa leaders seek Zimbabwe plan

An emergency meeting of southern African leaders is seeking to address the Zimbabwe crisis, ahead of Friday’s presidential election run-off.

The summit involves leaders from Swaziland, Tanzania and Angola – but does not include the region’s chief mediator, South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki.

It comes as UK-based mining giant Anglo American defended a large investment in a Zimbabwean platinum mine.

The UK government said it was planning further sanctions against the regime.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the financial and travel restrictions would target specific individuals in Mr Mugabe’s government.

The politically-motivated violence, intimidation and torture have made a just and fair run-off presidential election virtually impossible South African Catholic Bishops’ Conference Harare diary: Shell-shocked Zimbabwe: Possible scenarios Mugabe’s remarkable comeback New media evades censors

Asked about Anglo American’s reported $400m (£200m) investment in a Zimbabwe platinum mine, Mr Brown told parliament he did not want to see anything that would “prop up” the Mugabe regime.

The project, in the central district of Unki, would be the largest foreign investment in the country, the London Times reports.

Separately, the England and Wales Cricket Board said it had severed ties with the Zimbabwe Cricket team, cancelling a tour to England due for next year.

Police raid

Zimbabwe’s presidential election run-off is due to go ahead on Friday, despite the opposition’s withdrawal.

The leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, pulled out of the contest on Sunday, citing government-backed violence against his supporters.

Mr Tsvangirai, who is taking refuge in the Dutch embassy in Harare, says his party is open to suggestions from the emergency meeting of the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) peace and security committee being held in Swaziland.

The UK-based Guardian newspaper ran an article on Wednesday purportedly by Mr Tsvangirai, saying Mr Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” had failed and calling for UN peacekeepers to go into Zimbabwe.

But MDC officials later contacted the BBC to disown the article, insisting neither Mr Tsvangirai or any other MDC member had written it – claims rejected by the paper.

Mr Mugabe, who blames the opposition for the violence, says he is open to discussions – but only after the vote, the Herald newspaper quoted him as saying.

Police raided an MDC building in the eastern city of Mutare on Wednesday, the AFP news agency reports, demanding ID cards and posting guards outside the premises.

Advisory role

The BBC’s David Bamford says Sadc was assigned to oversee the election in Zimbabwe on behalf of Africa, and for that reason its opinion counts as to whether it believes Friday’s election should go ahead if the opposition does not take part.

ZIMBABWE AND ITS NEIGHBOURS

Zimbabwe’s opposition is hoping neighbouring countries will put pressure on President Robert Mugabe to step down. In the past they supported him. How are relations now?

South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki is the key Zimbabwe mediator. He has refused to criticise Robert Mugabe but the ruling ANC and trade unions have urged him to take a stronger line.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa has taken the region’s strongest line on Zimbabwe. He says Zimbabwe is a regional “embarrassment”.

Angola’s President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is one of Robert Mugabe’s closest allies – they fought colonialism together in the 1970s. He has urged Mr Mugabe to stop the violence.

Botswana has summoned a Zimbabwean envoy to complain about the political violence. It has been supportive of Zimbabwe’s opposition.

Namibia is a close ally of Zimbabwe – it, too, is planning to redistribute white-owned farms to black villagers. It has not criticised the election violence.

Mozambique has hosted some white farmers forced from Zimbabwe and is seen as relatively sympathetic to Zimbabwe’s opposition.

Tanzania’s ruling party has a long history of close ties to Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party and its foreign minister has condemned the violence.

DR Congo’s President Joseph Kabila is an ally of Robert Mugabe, who sent troops to help his father, Laurent Kabila, fight rebels.

Malawi is seen as neutral. But some 3m people of Malawian origin are in Zimbabwe, mostly farmworkers who have lost their jobs and were often assaulted during farm invasions.

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But that is not to say President Mugabe will necessarily pay any heed to its opinion, he adds.

The Swazi foreign minister, Mathendele Dlamini, told the BBC that the Sadc meeting was likely to offer advice to Mr Mugabe rather than issue any rebuke.

But the general secretary of the Confederation of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), Zwelinzima Vavi, said he hoped they would tell Mr Mugabe his presidency was over.

“The Sadc government must not drag themselves into recognising what everybody now agrees to be an illegitimate Robert Mugabe government,” he said.

“We don’t want Mugabe to be recognised at all, that should be the starting point.”

Kenya’s leaders have also joined international condemnation of Mr Mugabe and his government.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga said Mr Mugabe had no right to call himself president and said Friday’s vote would have no legitimacy and should be postponed.

“He lost an election and if he now proceeds to go and conduct a sham election and declare himself as a president that is not going to be acceptable,” he said.

Unified effort

The US has said it would not recognise the result of any vote held on Friday because of the violence being waged against the opposition.

The MDC says some 86 of its supporters have been killed and 200,000 forced from their homes by militias loyal to the ruling Zanu-PF party. The government blames the MDC for the violence.

The Southern African Catholic Bishops’ Conference issued a statement on Wednesday saying “the politically-motivated violence, intimidation and torture have made a just and fair run-off presidential election virtually impossible”.

They urged a unified effort from the international community and southern African countries to help resolve the situation and avoid a “vast humanitarian crisis that will engulf the whole Southern African region”.

The MDC won the parliamentary vote in March, and claims to have won the first round of the presidential contest – held on the same day – outright.

According to official results, Mr Tsvangirai was ahead of Mr Mugabe but failed to gain enough votes to avoid a run-off.

Original source can be read here, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7473111.stm

Zimbabwean elections to go ahead

Zimbabwean officials have said a run-off presidential election will go ahead, despite the withdrawal of opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai.

Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa said Mr Tsvangirai’s announcement was a ruse – he had not sent a formal notice yet.

Mr Tsvangirai said he would quit to curb violence by ruling party militias he says killed 86 of his supporters.

More than 60 opposition supporters have been arrested at the Harare office of Mr Tsvangirai’s party, it says.

Movement for Democratic Change spokesman Nelson Chamisa said those arrested were women and children who had fled political violence.

ZIMBABWE AND ITS NEIGHBOURS

Zimbabwe’s opposition is hoping neighbouring countries will put pressure on President Robert Mugabe to step down. In the past they supported him. How are relations now?

South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki is the key Zimbabwe mediator. He has refused to criticise Robert Mugabe but the ruling ANC and trade unions have urged him to take a stronger line.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa has taken the region’s strongest line on Zimbabwe. He says Zimbabwe is a regional “embarrassment”.

Angola’s President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is one of Robert Mugabe’s closest allies – they fought colonialism together in the 1970s. He has urged Mr Mugabe to stop the violence.

Botswana has summoned a Zimbabwean envoy to complain about the political violence. It has been supportive of Zimbabwe’s opposition.

Namibia is a close ally of Zimbabwe – it, too, is planning to redistribute white-owned farms to black villagers. It has not criticised the election violence.

Mozambique has hosted some white farmers forced from Zimbabwe and is seen as relatively sympathetic to Zimbabwe’s opposition.

Tanzania’s ruling party has a long history of close ties to Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party and its foreign minister has condemned the violence.

DR Congo’s President Joseph Kabila is an ally of Robert Mugabe, who sent troops to help his father, Laurent Kabila, fight rebels.

Malawi is seen as neutral. But some 3m people of Malawian origin are in Zimbabwe, mostly farmworkers who have lost their jobs and were often assaulted during farm invasions.

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He earlier said a negotiated settlement was the way forward, but violence must stop first.

But Mr Chamisa said the ruling Zanu-PF’s militias should be disbanded, adding that his party had received no direct approaches from mediators since the announcement.

The move has sparked international criticism of Zimbabwe’s government.

But President Robert Mugabe has blamed the MDC for the recent violence.

The leader of neighbouring Zambia, Levy Mwanawasa – who is head of the regional Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) – said a vote held in current conditions would be an “embarrassment” to the region.

Meanwhile, African Union Commission chairman Jean Ping said he was worried about the situation.

“This development and the increasing acts of violence in the run-up to the second round of the presidential election are a matter of grave concern to the Commission of the AU,” he said.

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The US and UK have said they are prepared to bring Zimbabwe before the UN Security Council over the election violence.

But South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating in the crisis, called for further dialogue.

“From our point of view it is still necessary that the political leadership of Zimbabwe should get together and find a solution to the challenges that face Zimbabwe,” he said.

‘Humiliation fear’

Zimbabwe’s electoral commission said that preparations for the election were under way and a credible result was still possible.

Mr Chinamasa said Zanu-PF was not treating Mr Tsvangirai’s “threats” to withdraw seriously.

KEY POLL COMPLAINTS Violence: 86 killed, 200,000 displaced MDC rallies banned, leaders detained Opposition areas not given food aid State media refused MDC adverts Zanu-PF supporters to be used as election officials Fresh dilemmas over Zimbabwe Day of drama in Harare MDC pull-out: Zimbabwe reacts

“This is the 11th time that Tsvangirai has threatened to withdraw from the presidential run-off and on each occasion I have challenged him to put it in writing as required by the law,” he said.

Mr Tsvangirai’s announcement of withdrawal was to avoid “humiliation”, he added.

“Tsvangirai went into the election thinking that it was a sprint and was not prepared for a marathon and wants to avoid defeat,” he said.

“He spent his time globe-trotting and gallivanting in Europe and left MDC-T supporters without leadership.”

There has been no response from Mr Mugabe himself to Mr Tsvangirai’s announcement.

On Sunday, Mr Tsvangirai said that there was no point running when elections would not be free and fair and “the outcome is determined by… Mugabe himself”.

He said that while the decision had been a difficult one it was necessary to protect the people of Zimbabwe.

The opposition’s decision was announced after its supporters, heading to a rally in the capital Harare, came under attack.

The BBC’s Peter Biles says Mr Tsvangirai did not want to expose his supporters to any more violence.

HAVE YOUR SAY

MDC stands for Movement for Democratic Change. If the only recourse for the people to change a regime is armed conflict – the next regime will be no better than the last.

Matabele, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

Send us your comments

He will now be hoping that the Sadc will refuse to confer legitimacy on the process, he says.

Our correspondent adds that the country’s economic crisis – with unofficial figures putting inflation at 2m% – could drive Zimbabwe’s government to negotiate for a political solution.

The MDC won the parliamentary vote in March, and claims to have won the first round of the presidential contest outright.

In the official results, Mr Tsvangirai led but failed to gain enough votes to avoid a run-off.

Original source can be read here, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7468849.stm

Julius Malema refuses to say sorry

ANC Youth League president Julius Malema refused to apologise today for his controversial “kill for Zuma” remark, and accused the media of distorting his words.

Motlanthe slams youth league firebrand Malema ‘has 14 days to retract remark’ AUDIO: Is Malema inciting violence? “We never meant literally that people should be killed. We never called on anybody to immediately take up arms,” he told reporters in Johannesburg. Asked whether he would apologise for the statement made at a Bloemfontein rally at the weekend, Malema replied: “Why do you apologise for something you did not mean”. However, Malema did say that he would never use the word kill in a speech again. “After this exercise I will never repeat the word ’kill’. I will find a creative way to say I will do anything to protect comrade Zuma.” Malema said ANC president Zuma approached him after the speech and asked him to explain his statement, for which the Human Rights Commission has since requested an apology. “The president of the ANC said to me that was a heavy statement and I had to provide some explanation … the president was shaken by the statement,” he said. Malema, at the rally, said the Youth League was “prepared to die for Zuma. We are prepared to take up arms and kill for Zuma”. But, he said, media reports on his speech were “blown out of proportion with a clear malicious intent and consequence”. “We have noticed a distortion, misinterpretation, vulgar insults and defamatory comments which have been hurled against ANC Youth League”. Malema said it was all part of a political agenda to discredit the Youth League. Original source can be read here, http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=787409

Early reaction to Al Gore’s Obama endorsement: Yawn

Some early overnight reaction to the belated endorsement of Barack Obama by Al Gore. And it might disappoint the former vice president and loser in the 2000 White House race.

Exactly what Gore was waiting for in the past two weeks since Obama sewed up his party’s nomination is unclear. Maybe he just wanted to go to Michigan where his prize-winning environmental pitch is so very less welcome than other places that don’t make so many large cars.

Or maybe he was waiting until his endorsement meant absolutely nothing.

Anyway, as The Ticket reported, Gore said all the right things in his endorsement speech, except he noticeably left out the last Democratic president, the one who chose to elevate Gore from has-been senator to his running mate and has been the only Democrat elected president twice since World War II, which is like the Middle Ages for today’s voters.

But within minutes online reaction was underwhelming. Joe Gandelman, editor-in-chief over at The Moderate Voice, who is usually, well, very moderate, posted an item titled “Obama gets ‘the’ Endorsement: The Lousy Timing of Al Gore.”

He had this to say:

“Perhaps one day someone will write a chapter in a new book about Al Gore titled ‘Profiles in Uncourage.’…But it came so late in the game that the person who’ll be most impressed with it will be Tipper Gore.”

After that the item went downhill. Gandelman said the endorsement so long-sought by Obama and Hillary Clinton was by now such an anti-climax that it resembled the ponderings about whether Ralph Nader would run yet again.

Ouch, how’d you like to be compared to the 21st century’s Harold Stassen?

“Not exactly “Man bites dog” news. Who is Gore going to endorse? John McCain?” asked John Mariner in The Ticket’s comments section.

Sam Patel added: “It’s a sad day to see one of the Clinton’s most loyal supporters essentially dis-own them! Like Bill Richardson, Al Gore was a complete nobody had it not been for Bill Clinton’s risky generosity. I bet he now regrets some of those appointments.”

Up at the San Francisco Chronicle’s politics blog, Joe Garofoli wrote: “We know this will never happen, but hopefully Al will tell us tonight why he didn’t endorse somebody when it WOULD HAVE MEANT SOMETHING. Like in February.

“Then again, think of it from his perspective. In his forseable role as Captain Planet, he’s going to need to work with whomever would be president, so why burn a bridge with a nomination. But isn’t Al big enough now (is that a Nobel in your pocket?) that he doesn’t have to worry about such petty political matters.”

Guess not.

–Andrew Malcolm

Original source can be read here, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/al-gore-react.html

United South Africans say ‘enough is enough’

Million Man March wasn’t huge in numbers, but the passion was

About ten thousand people, not the envisaged one million, converged on the lawns of the Union Buildings for the Million Man March to protest against crime yesterday, but, in the words of the convener Desmond Dube, the point was made all the same.

“The message has gone through,” said the popular entertainer.

Parents and their children; the sighted and the blind; from the Methodist Church to Hare Krishna followers; workers, the unemployed and schoolchildren of every shade and hue, size and shape – everyone affected by the scourge of crime – made time to hear Dube and other speakers demand that the government act on crime.

Even as a normal business day unfolded in the streets of the capital, from early morning the city experienced a steady trickle of people, each one of them bent on adding their voices to the anti- crime call – “enough is enough”.

At 9.45am Dube came on stage to announce to the sparse crowd that the official function was to start promptly at midday.

Members of the DA then began chanting slogans and laid out fresh flowers in front of the elevated stage, in memory of one Danielle, a little girl whose angelic face looked out from the posters held aloft.

Handing out free sandwiches, they gave a rapturous reception to DA leader Helen Zille who appeared at 11am.

Smaller in numbers, the Independent Democrats and Azapo also made their presence known.

Small-time entrepreneurs also were busy, selling party T-shirts.

While all the Freedom Front Plus could seemingly do was to hold up their banner, a slew of energetic comrades in kangas bearing the face of ANC President Jacob Zuma – and SACP logo T-shirts as well – gathered around to do the gwiji, the struggle’s dance and song.

They did it so well they were soon joined by white marchers who, while clearly not familiar with the lyrics, saw it as an opportunity to join in a common cause – the fight against crime.

“Viva” and “Amandla” they did hear, though. And they screamed their voices hoarse in unison.

Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Front also carried their banner high with Holomisa sitting among other dignitaries behind the podium.

A day before the march, he’d said: “The UDM views this march as part of bolstering the efforts to combat crime in South Africa; it will send a strong message to the would-be perpetrators of crime …

“Crime in this country is killing and maiming our brothers, sisters, parents and children. It takes from our midst the people we love and the people we depend on.”

And like most politicians who attended, Holomisa thanked “the initiative” taken by the organisers of the march. Correctional Services Minister Ngconde Balfour was heckled when he received the memorandum on behalf of President Thabo Mbeki,

In their trademark red waistcoats, Amadodana Ase Wesile, the Men’s Guild of the Methodist Church, impressed the gathering when they sang their hymns. The marchers joined in and … it was if a church service had begun.

In the words of their church leader, Bishop Gavin Taylor, who heads the Limpopo region , the march was a chance to “awaken South Africans to the seriousness of crime”.

Taylor said he hoped the government would take the concerns of ordinary citizens seriously.

Schoolgirls Nompumelelo Martin and Nthabeleng Mzizi, who are in matric at St Mary’s in Waverley, Johannesburg, said they had come “to take a stand against crime”.

Jacki Hewitt and a few of her buddies came dressed in T-shirts bearing a picture of her brother, Neil, who was gunned down in a Honeydew restaurant that was robbed in 2003.

Other relatives did the same, remembering the loved ones they had lost to crime.

When the clock struck midday, Bishop Abram Sibiya opened the one-hour proceedings with a moving prayer and a sermon that, if the country’s rulers did not hear, God certainly did.

Speaker after speaker – from the wife of the slain Soweto businessman Shimmy Mofokeng, Dube’s neighbour whose killing planted the idea in the actor’s head, to Moeketsi Mosola, head of Tourism SA – appealed to the government to prioritise the fight against crime.

The numbers were not as swollen as the Million Man March in Washington DC in 1995, but in its own way, yesterday’s march will also go down in history.

Original source can be read here, http://www.sowetan.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=782720

Nigeria: Barack Obama

Kola Animasun
Lagos

BARACK Obama. Nobody now asks who he is. He has broken the barrier of our consciousness and now resides there.

He was not altogether unknown. He has been known in the confines of the United States as senator; damned good lawyer and a well-educated citizen.

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Now he stamped most forcefully into the political history of the most powerful democracy in the world. He has stopped to be a byline.

Perhaps, at 46, he typifies what the world thinks and what the world wants as its rulers. Clinton came into the Presidency of the United States at about the age that Obama will, if he wins the Presidency. But Obama’s case is different.

He is the first coloured man to win the presidential primary of any major party. He will be the first coloured man if he wins the Presidency. And that will be history.

It clearly shows that America knows her mind and would give anybody the chance at the highest level, regardless. Obama has dealt the last vestiges of racism its punchiest blows. Of course, she is still reeling and let us hope that it would not be a case of being punch-drunk but one of a deadly blow. For good.

It has been a stormy primary: Sometimes dirty in places. Obama, however, discounted the hit beneath the belt and played it with some decency.

Those who resented him, he ignored and wooed them. It is fair to say that both contenders – Hillary Rodham Clinton and himself – were marvelous and in spite of accidents of language here, there and yonder – played according to the rules.

Now that the chicken has come home to roost, Americans have chosen the better of its democratic best. And Clinton was not worsted. She manifested the American penchant and gave her best. She underwent the rigour of election tours and campaigns.

Till the end, Hillary did not show she was worse for tears. They never say die and she fought to the last in South Dakota.

The results showed the amount of work one has put in. As I write this, there is no confirmation that Hillary had been offered or accepted the vice-presidential slot of the Democratic presidential ticket.

But it will be a wonderful combination and a winning one. Both have dynamism and character and will complement each other. Simply because Hillary would pull the women’s votes across the board just as it has been demonstrated that Obama has crashed the racial barrier.

Come November, their chances are very, very bright. Particularly against the background of war and economic crises.

Usually, people are clamouring for change. In the opening gambit of his campaign, Obama said: We came together as Democrats, as Republicans, and Independents, to stand up and say we are one nation, we are one people and our time for change has come.”

And they may have the change against the background of Afghanistan and Israel. I would keep my fingers crossed. Even if some are skeptical that a blackman cannot mount the Presidency of the United States.

Justice delayed is justice denied

IT is well over a year since elections have been held. It is impossible to contemplate how much more of our hard earned funds have gone into the re-defining of elections. Judges have been appointed into tribunals and the counsel are smiling to the banks.

The losers are the losers at the election. I do not know how counsel to the respondents are paid but I guess the bills are picked up by the exchequer which means by you and I.

It may be a below the line account but surely it does not come from the personal pockets of the respondents. The governors currently wear the crown and the crown settles the bill.

Therefore, it does not matter, for the respondent, how long it takes. A year has gone in a tenure of four years and only God knows how much more longer it will take.

Relevant Links West Africa Nigeria

For a governor that may eventually lose, the many months in power is a bonus. In Ekiti, Kayode Fayemi has been waiting in the wings; in Osun, Rauf Aregbesola has been roaring to go for these many months.

In Ondo State, Segun Agagu is in government despite Segun Mimiko’s impatience; Ibadan has been decided at the first election tribunal and the Biola Ajimobi appeal is inching its way to the Court of Appeal.

There must be a way of fast-tracking election petitions to spare litigants the agony of going through the process painlessly and on time.

Original source can be read here, http://allafrica.com/stories/200806090231.html

Inside Hillary Clinton’s decision to quit: The 5 hidden emotional stages

Since it’s pretty clear this morning that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is not going to withdraw from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in the face of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s admirably annoying tenacity, it falls to the New York senator to adjust to a harsh political reality that was a year ago today absolutely unthinkable: She lost.

Whatever your personal feelings are toward Clinton — and The Ticket’s Comment boards reveal a rude intensity on both sides — or toward any of the other losers in either party who gave up the electoral marathon weeks or months ago, running for office like this requires a profound commitment by the candidate, his/her family and those around them who invest up to 20-hour days for very little pay over what now nearly spans two years.

This nation’s chief executive weeding-out process is brutal, as it should be to force only the most qualified, savvy, lucky, smart to the top.

But we don’t have to bring out the violins for any of the….

…White House wannabes to acknowledge that, political theatre and personal ambition aside, these campaigns are personally grueling affairs, as energetic even joyous as the rallies and speeches seem in the bright lights of the TV cameras.

Like pro hockey teams after a tough game, candidates and their entourages spend a good chunk of many nights moving on to the next city, arriving late and rising early to consult the little printed staff

schedules slipped under their hotel door that remind them what city they’re starting in for that next 18-20 hour day.

Only two people know for certain how long Hillary Clinton has been dreaming, planning, organizing her presidential bid — 8 years, 10, 16, more? Last year she sure looked like she knew victory was inevitable.

And when it starts to slip away, it’s even harder. Walter Mondale has said he knew the moment Ronald Reagan made that famous age quip that his campaign would lose. Yet he campaigned on. Likewise, President Bush I has confided that he knew two weeks before election day in 1992 that his was a hopeless cause.

So when did Hillary Clinton get the first hint? When she kept losing caucuses? When she hadn’t wrapped up the super prize by Feb. 5 as envisioned? When the Obama money machine kept churning out millions?

In the last many weeks as Obama’s delegate totals moved closer to the magic majority, many have watched in fascination as Clinton seemed to move through the same five stages of grief that Elizabeth Kubler-Ross described in “On Death and Dying.” Except it was Clinton’s campaign and White House dream that was dying.

The first stage is Denial: This isn’t happening. How could this be happening when she was to inherit the political mantle of her once-again popular husband, the only Democratic president elected twice since Franklin Delano Roosevelt? How could this Illinois nobody with no credentials, few accomplishments other than a golden tongue move in so easily?

The second stage is Anger: “Shame on you, Barack Obama!” Remember those angry outbursts a few hours after the kissy we’re-all-Democrats-in-this-together-it’s-an-honor to compete against Sen. Obama stuff at the debates?

The third stage is Bargaining: That’s less visible to observers, more internal. If I only work harder, things will work out. No one can doubt her determination and grit despite internal campaign turmoil, overspending and controversies with her overpaid consultant who was working both sides of the Colombian trade deal.

And in recent weeks when so many thought her effort was hopeless, she sure didn’t show hopelessness. And her loyalists responded to that fighting spirit with overwhelming victories in crucial places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.

The fourth stage is Depression: This can manifest itself in many ways, possibly in a stubbornness to accept the inevitable delegate math. And so often the Clintons’ political careers have been saved by last-minute salvations if only they hung on long enough in the face of what others saw as hopeless adversity.

Gennifer didn’t derail Bill in 1992’s New Hampshire primary; he only took second, but declared victory and folks remember him winning. How similar that Hillary was holding what looked like a victory rally in Texas while Obama won some more states elsewhere. Or what was an actual victory rally for herself in Florida, after a vote that wasn’t supposed to count.

The same could be said of her Tuesday night speech when so many convinced themselves she would concede despite contrary signals from her aides. So many commentators didn’t like her tone. No submission. No contrition. No magnamity.

She said she was going to take a few days to decide her future path. There’s a momentum and life force to major national campaigns. You can’t turn off the machine and the candidate’s adrenalin and emotional commitment like a light switch. It winds down.

The defeat must sink in.

And besides, what’s the rush over a few days? Clearly, in a strange way the victorious Obama camp ends up needing the losing Clintonites much more than they need him.

Which brings us to stage 5, Acceptance: That might have come to her over the next week or so. But Wednesday’s pre-dawn joint statement by Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and who’s-its, the West Virginia governor, sped up that process. They set a Friday deadline for uncommitted superdelegates to make their calls, which forces Hillary’s hand.

Still, she said nothing about surrender in Wednesday morning staff meetings. It wasn’t until her afternoon phone call with Congressional colleagues that she, well, accepted their message that it was over. And needed to end quickly. And she made the decision to pull the plug.

Friday she’ll have a celebration with some supporters and word will no doubt leak from there that at another Saturday “celebration” (how did that word get in here?), she’ll formally suspend her campaign and endorse Obama, as previously promised.

From St. Paul yesterday afternoon, Matt Burns, communications director for the Republican National Convention, fired off an e-mail to The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reporting they’d received numerous calls from Clinton supporters offering to work for McCain.

With up to 40% of Clinton primary voters vowing to exit-pollsters that they’d opt for the GOP over Obama, that’s not too surprising.

Nor would it be surprising if somewhere in the recesses of that mind that now publicly accepts her defeat and will officially do so with an Obama endorsement, there resides a residual pocket of hope about the future.

As Jay Leno said in his monologue earlier this week, “The good news is that the whole voting process ended tonight. It’s all over as of tonight. The bad news: The 2012 Democratic primaries start on Thursday.”

That’s today!

Now, the first stage of grieving is Denial….

–Andrew Malcolm

Original source can be read here, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/clintons-grief.html